The Ocean Is Warming More Quickly Than We Thought

A new study confirms that the oceans are absorbing heat from climate change at a faster rate, endangering marine wildlife.

For years, climate deniers have harped on an atypical trend in the global temperature dataset: that the rate of climate change slowed or even stalled beginning in the late 1990s. They claim that this global warming 鈥渉iatus鈥 proves that climate change is natural instead of manmade. 

The hiatus has already been debunked, but deniers won't let up. Now, a new study, , confirms yet again that a full-blown hiatus did not occur, as the odd trendline was a mere artifact of misinterpreted data. The findings also square with a growing body of evidence showing that the ocean is absorbing our excess heat, and that a warmer ocean is already affecting marine life.

The short version of this story starts in 2015, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) . That dataset combines ocean temperature readings from a variety of sources that don't always fit together well. Until 1990, ocean temperatures were measured aboard ships鈥攆irst by sticking thermometers into buckets of water, and later by instruments in the engine room. But over the last 25 years, those ship measurements have been displaced by thousands of floating buoys, which directly measure ocean water at the surface and beam the data to satellites.

鈥淚n 1990, we got 95 percent of our measurements from ships; today, we get 85 percent of our measurements from buoys,鈥 says , a data analyst at Berkeley Earth, an independent scientific nonprofit that reanalyzes climate data. 鈥淓ach of those different things measures temperature a little differently.鈥

Over time, it became clear that the buoy measurements are more accurate than the ship-based ones. So when NOAA updated its dataset in 2015, they preferred buoy data over ship data whenever possible. The new analysis showed that they had previously underestimated ocean temperatures鈥攁nd, as a result, had underestimated global surface temperatures, too.

鈥淭hey found that the actual amount of warming we鈥檝e had in the last 15 years鈥攖his is through 2014鈥攚as about twice what was previously estimated,鈥 Hausfather says. 鈥淎nd all of those changes were due from updating their ocean record.鈥

Climate deniers cried foul when they heard the news. The new data eliminated the global warming "hiatus"鈥攖he slowing or stalling of temperature rise between 1998 and 2012鈥攚hich they saw as a major flaw in climate science. In December 2015, Congressman Lamar Smith (R-TX), chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space, & Technology who rejects climate science, that NOAA employees 鈥渁ltered historical climate data to get politically correct results in an attempt to disprove the 18-year lack of global temperature increases.鈥 Smith also , demanding the names of employees who worked on the research and their communications. (NOAA declined to provide many of these details.)

Hausfather wasn鈥檛 involved in the NOAA study; he watched the political spectacle unfold from the sidelines. But when he took a look at the updated temperature record, he grew interested鈥攆rom a scientific standpoint鈥攂ecause it conflicted with another prominent climate dataset.

鈥淣ot only did their new record show more warming than their old record, but it also showed more warming than the , which is probably the most commonly used global temperature record and ocean temperature record,鈥 he says. 鈥淲e wanted to find out: Which of these were right?鈥

Hausfather wanted to compare the NOAA and Hadley records to other independent records of ocean temperatures, ideally ones that don鈥檛 combine measurements from multiple sources. He found three such datasets: buoy data on its own; temperatures taken by satellites; and readings from , which measure ocean temperatures from the surface to the deep sea.

His analysis showed that each of those independent datasets more closely matched NOAA鈥檚 updated record than NOAA's old dataset or the Hadley record, supporting the case that the oceans warmed 0.12掳C (0.22掳F) per decade since 2000, rather than 0.07掳C. 鈥淲e confirmed that we鈥檝e been underestimating the rate of warming in recent years,鈥 Hausfather says. 鈥淯ltimately it鈥檚 an important vindication of the folks at NOAA: that they鈥檙e not cooking the books or making other changes to the data.鈥

The ocean 鈥攎ore than 90 percent of it鈥攁nd in recent years, the ocean has warmed more quickly than expected  and . The increase in temperature is already having noticeable effects. Commercial fish species are migrating north to cooler waters . Seabirds鈥 diets are shifting, sometimes causing breeding failures or die-offs. And is causing rapid melting beyond that predicted by most climate models.

It鈥檚 increasingly clear that the ocean is warming, and it's caused by manmade climate change. This new study should set the debate to rest.